Thursday, May 3, 2012

The US Dollar moved below its April lows, which was step 2 for the dollar to move to a new trend which would be down. The dollar did not close at new lows but we now have lower highs lower lows.
The bottom line is that the dollar is now in a downtrend and gold and related securities are in uptrend BUT probabilities of continuing those trends will rise when gold and the dollar close above and below the levels mentioned earlier. 
Markets don’t move in straight lines and a change in trend is a process so expect the dollar to rally and gold to fall in the short term.
In a broader view, I believe that the market is sensing inflationary pressures due to the price action of the dollar.
Oil is in rally mode and buy signals over the last week have brought us from an underweight in energy stocks to an overweight today.
In other words; over the past few weeks, price action led us to add energy, materials and precious metal stocks to portfolios. This is not a recommendation to buy these stocks now, it is simply an observation that prices have dictated our actions and it appears that the market is starting to hedge against inflation.
This morning, the US Dollar is bouncing, driving stock and commodity futures lower

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