For an objective presentation of what happened in the US with the economic reports this week, here are the headlines from the Econoday analysts:
• Retail sales up from the mat
• Consumer sentiment up despite higher gasoline prices
• Housing starts hold steady while permits strengthen
• Industrial production picks up in July
• Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing are negative for August
• Consumer price inflation tame—for now
• Producer price inflation warms up in July
• Leading indicators gain momentum in July
From the four previous weeks, the headlines were as follows:
• International trade deficit narrows in June -- with higher ag prices
• Import prices continue to dip -- with lower oil prices
• Consumer credit growth slows in June
• Productivity up in Q2 but on slower growth in hours
• The Fed holds steady
• Employment gains momentum—somewhat
• Personal income up while spending stagnates in June
• Motor vehicle sales slip but healthy in July
• Consumer confidence improves a little in July but still glum
• Markit and ISM manufacturing indexes give mixed readings
• Dallas Fed manufacturing mixed in July
• Construction outlays maintain recent uptrend
• Case-Shiller Home Price Index continues improvement
• ISM non-manufacturing index gains in July
• Second quarter GDP soft but tops [extremely low] expectations
• New home sales oscillate—this time down
• Pending home sales dip in June—supply and weather possible factors
• FHFA house prices continue recent uptrend
• Durables orders in June lifted by aircraft but not much else
• Markit flash PMI stays in positive territory
• Richmond and Kansas City Fed reports—mixed signals on manufacturing
• Consumer sentiment showing no improvement
• Retail sales continue downturn
• Housing starts show improvement
• Existing home sales slip back
• Industrial production makes a comeback in June
• Empire State and Philly Fed show slowing momentum
• Consumer prices slow at headline level but not core
• Leading indicators turn negative
• Beige Book shows subdued recovery but still slightly positive
• Bernanke testimony sticks to script
The bottom line this week, says Econoday: “The recovery is gaining strength, albeit slowly. Housing finally is rising out of its recession rut and is on a modest uptrend. The consumer sector may not be retreating as feared. However, manufacturing data have been unclear—this sector may or may not be flattening in the near term. But overall, the economy is doing somewhat better—although that fiscal cliff is still looming.”
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