Capital market prices are based on fundamentals but move in trends and cycles based largely on emotion and hype.
For the summary of what happened in the US with the economic reports this week, here are the headlines from the Econoday analysts:
From the four previous weeks, the headlines were as follows:
The bottom line this week, says Econoday: “The latest numbers were limited and mixed. The best news was that exports are still growing. This is good for the manufacturing sector. The productivity numbers put company profit growth on the fence. With unit labor costs trending low, a boost in output and revenues could lead to upside potential for profits. But lack of output growth leaves profits languishing—bearing in mind that expectations for profits are rather low.”
As for our studies this week, we’ll first look at the detailed economic data for the week that passed and the one ahead. Then we’ll get into the market prices, and the trends and cycles of Currencies, Bonds, Equities, Commodities and Precious Metals.
For the summary of what happened in the US with the economic reports this week, here are the headlines from the Econoday analysts:
• International trade deficit narrows in June -- with higher ag prices
• Import prices continue to dip -- with lower oil prices
• Consumer credit growth slows in June
• Productivity up in Q2 but on slower growth in hours
From the four previous weeks, the headlines were as follows:
• The Fed holds steady
• Employment gains momentum—somewhat
• Personal income up while spending stagnates in June
• Motor vehicle sales slip but healthy in July
• Consumer confidence improves a little in July but still glum
• Markit and ISM manufacturing indexes give mixed readings
• Dallas Fed manufacturing mixed in July
• Construction outlays maintain recent uptrend
• Case-Shiller Home Price Index continues improvement
• ISM non-manufacturing index gains in July
• Second quarter GDP soft but tops [extremely low] expectations
• New home sales oscillate—this time down
• Pending home sales dip in June—supply and weather possible factors
• FHFA house prices continue recent uptrend
• Durables orders in June lifted by aircraft but not much else
• Markit flash PMI stays in positive territory
• Richmond and Kansas City Fed reports—mixed signals on manufacturing
• Consumer sentiment showing no improvement
• Retail sales continue downturn
• Housing starts show improvement
• Existing home sales slip back
• Industrial production makes a comeback in June
• Empire State and Philly Fed show slowing momentum
• Consumer prices slow at headline level but not core
• Leading indicators turn negative
• Beige Book shows subdued recovery but still slightly positive
• Bernanke testimony sticks to script
• Trade gap shrinks in May on lower oil prices
• Consumer sentiment slips on expectations
• Consumer credit jumps sharply in May
• Producer prices unexpectedly edge up but still soft
• Import prices drop on petroleum but softness is widespread
• FOMC minutes disappoint
The bottom line this week, says Econoday: “The latest numbers were limited and mixed. The best news was that exports are still growing. This is good for the manufacturing sector. The productivity numbers put company profit growth on the fence. With unit labor costs trending low, a boost in output and revenues could lead to upside potential for profits. But lack of output growth leaves profits languishing—bearing in mind that expectations for profits are rather low.”
As for our studies this week, we’ll first look at the detailed economic data for the week that passed and the one ahead. Then we’ll get into the market prices, and the trends and cycles of Currencies, Bonds, Equities, Commodities and Precious Metals.
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